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Singapore Economics

Dodging Recession


Escaping a Technical Recession in 3Q

Singapore may have narrowly dodged a technical recession in the third quarter, judging from July data and anecdotal evidence for August. Manufacturing may remain in recession, but services growth likely improved in 3Q. Three reasons for the change in view: [1] frontloading of trade orders, in anticipation of higher US import tariffs; [2] strong ACU (offshore) lending to fund supply chain shifts to ASEAN; and [3] stronger hospitality growth due to Hong Kong protests.


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Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC SP)

Unlikely To Be Distracted By Acquisition Down South


We see higher probability of OCBC emphasising on its north-bound expansion to increase its 20% stake in BON (market cap: S$25.6b), as and when allowed to do so by the authorities in China. It will also deploy capital to support expansion to double PBT from GBA to S$1b by 2023. Bank Permata is smaller than OCBC NISP and has a low ROE of 5.9%. It may not be worth the effort to acquire Bank Permata due to its chequered history. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$14.48.


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LionelLim8.16Check out our compilation of Target Prices

Share Prices

Counter NameLastChange
AEM Holdings1.170-0.020
Avi-Tech Electronics0.340-0.005
Best World Int.1.360-
China Sunsine1.1000.010
CNMC GoldMine0.2850.005
CSE Global0.4700.005
Eagle HTrust USD0.655-
Food Empire0.500-0.005
Golden Energy0.168-0.005
GSS Energy0.069-
ISDN Holdings0.220-0.005
JB Foods0.645-0.010
KSH Holdings0.4650.005
Moya Asia0.063-
Nordic Group0.265-
Oxley Holdings0.305-0.005
REX International0.084-0.001
Sing Holdings0.390-
Straco Corp.0.755-
Sunningdale Tech1.230-
Sunpower Group0.4500.015
The Trendlines0.078-
Tiong Seng0.215-
Uni-Asia Group0.710-0.005
Yangzijiang Shipbldg1.000-0.050

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