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Singapore Economics

Dodging Recession


Escaping a Technical Recession in 3Q

Singapore may have narrowly dodged a technical recession in the third quarter, judging from July data and anecdotal evidence for August. Manufacturing may remain in recession, but services growth likely improved in 3Q. Three reasons for the change in view: [1] frontloading of trade orders, in anticipation of higher US import tariffs; [2] strong ACU (offshore) lending to fund supply chain shifts to ASEAN; and [3] stronger hospitality growth due to Hong Kong protests.


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Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC SP)

Unlikely To Be Distracted By Acquisition Down South


We see higher probability of OCBC emphasising on its north-bound expansion to increase its 20% stake in BON (market cap: S$25.6b), as and when allowed to do so by the authorities in China. It will also deploy capital to support expansion to double PBT from GBA to S$1b by 2023. Bank Permata is smaller than OCBC NISP and has a low ROE of 5.9%. It may not be worth the effort to acquire Bank Permata due to its chequered history. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$14.48.


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LionelLim8.16Check out our compilation of Target Prices

Share Prices

Counter NameLastChange
AEM Holdings2.090-0.140
Avi-Tech Electronics0.415-0.020
Best World Int.1.360-
China Sunsine0.445-
CNMC GoldMine0.2550.010
CSE Global0.550-0.015
Eagle HTrust USD0.470-0.050
Food Empire0.760-0.010
Golden Energy0.153-0.002
GSS Energy0.088-0.004
ISDN Holdings0.198-0.001
JB Foods0.625-0.030
KSH Holdings0.390-0.010
Moya Asia0.074-0.004
Nordic Group0.275-0.020
Oxley Holdings0.335-0.010
REX International0.178-0.015
Sing Holdings0.405-
Straco Corp.0.560-0.010
Sunningdale Tech1.240-0.020
Sunpower Group0.530-0.015
The Trendlines0.109-0.016
Tiong Seng0.200-
Uni-Asia Group0.685-0.010
Yangzijiang Shipbldg1.000-0.040

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