|MAYBANK KIM ENG||
Japfa Ltd (JAP SP)
Poultry rebound and NDR takeaways; BUY
A strong rebound in Indonesia broiler prices in April should allay market concern of weak ASPs in the prior two months. Separately, management indicated Vietnam possibly holds the most growth promise in the near term and, the African Swine Flu (ASF) situation, while negative, will accelerate industrialised farming share of the market. We trim FY19E21E forecasts by 9-12% and SOTP target by 11% to SGD0.93 from margin assumption revisions given the raw material cost escalation seen in 1Q19.
Frasers Centrepoint Trust
A watertight deal
SINGAPORE | REAL ESTATE (REIT) | UPDATE
FCT proposed an acquisition of a 33.33% interest in Waterway Point from its Sponsor.
Equity fund raising of 184mn new units totaling S$437.4mn (S$369.6mn private placement and S$67.8mn pro-rata non-renounceable preferential offering) at S$2.382 and S$2.350 per new unit, respectively.
WWP has an NPI yield of 4.7% and is expected to contribute c.16.5% of the total return (on a pro-forma basis) of FCT’s enlarged portfolio, diversifying FCT’s earnings base.
We expect FY19e/FY20e DPU to rise 0.4% and 2.2%, respectively.
Maintain NEUTRAL with higher TP of S$2.36 (prev. S$2.31).
Penguin Int'l Ltd
■ We initiate on PBS with Add and TP of S$0.72 based on 1x FY19F P/BV. We like this stock as it is cheap (4x FY19F P/E ex-cash currently) and profitable.
■ Conservative management and diversification into defence vessels helped PBS. It suffered one year of net loss in FY16, while some peers went bust.
■ Our FY19-21F EPS estimates are conservative (+3.5% CAGR), with potential upside of 15% to FY20F EPS from higher ship sales.
Golden Agri-Resources: Supported by govt policies
In its latest 1Q19 results, Golden-Agri’s (GAR) revenue fell 11.0% YoY to US$1.6b while net profit rose 54.5% to US$18.3m. Still, this was below ours and the street’s expectations. Since our earlier report on 9 Apr 2019 in which we noted the stock was trading close to the +1 s.d. level in terms of P/B valuations, the share price of GAR has corrected by about 20%, possibly because of its weaker-than-expected results and the recent market sell-down. The recent correction in crude oil prices has meant that the palm-oil-gas-oil spread has narrowed, making palm less attractive for blending into biofuel. Weak soybean oil prices, a substitute for palm oil, are also keeping the palm market under pressure. On the other hand, government policies in Indonesia and Malaysia are expected to provide support to palm oil prices as both countries increase the mandatory use of diesel containing locally produced biofuel. We update our estimates and our fair value slips from S$0.29 to S$0.27. Maintain HOLD.
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