Plantation – Singapore
1Q19 Results Review: Earnings Likely To Have Bottomed For This Cycle
1Q19 saw another weak quarter of earnings for plantation companies largely due to subdued palm and palm kernel oil prices. Production patterns of companies vary depending on estate location and age profile. Companies with older palm trees reported weaker yoy production, but most companies are guiding for higher FBB production for the rest of 2019, especially 2H19. Thus, 1Q19 earnings would likely have been the bottom for this year. We expect stronger earnings in 2H19, driven by better production and higher ASP. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
Golden Energy and Resources Ltd
Mitigating an unfavourable ASP
SINGAPORE | MINING | 1Q19 RESULTS
Revenue and PATMI missed our expectations due to higher operating costs and lower ASP.
Production volume on-track to meet FY19 target of 25mn tonnes.
Cash profit slight above US$10/tonne in 1Q19. Coal price headwinds dim the outlook.
We lower FY19e EPS to 1.8 US cents (previously 2.2 US cents) due to higher overhead costs such as freight and stockpile expenses resulting from higher sales volumes. Based on the unchanged peer average forward PER of 10x and the FX rate (USD/SGD) of 1.36x, we downgrade our recommendation to ACCUMULATE with a lower target price of S$0.24 for FY19.
Singapore’s resilience amid trade war blues
• Strong supportive factors from cheaper valuations, high dividend yields, bottoming expectations and dovish Fed
• Downside for Singapore market should be less than 10% as valuations are already below -1SD
• We look for stocks with lower valuations, higher earnings visibility and domestic demand to cushion downside risks from a full-fledged trade war
Check out our compilation of Target Prices