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Property Devt & Invt

Taking a small breather

■ Slower May volume on absence of new launches, ongoing projects seeing more traction.

■ Developers continue to increase inventory ahead of sector recovery.

■ Maintain Overweight; UOL, City Dev, FCL and Capitaland remain top picks.

Slower May volumes on lack of new launches

● May home sales came in at 1,394 units, of which 370 units were executive condominiums (ECs). This headline number was 28% lower mom but unchanged from a year ago. Stripping out ECs, sales would have dipped 34% mom and 3% yoy. The slower May transactions are not surprising given the strong sales in Mar and Apr. With few new project launches, volume sales were 3x the number of new units marketed.


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Genting Hong Kong (GENHK SP)

Choppy Waters Ahead

Tough competition at the Asian cruise segment, the shipyard’s continuing losses and the uncertain length of RWM’s operations suspension (following the unfortunate robbery/arson incident on 2 June) have prompted us to downgrade the stock to SELL. RWM, held by associate Travelers International, was the only earnings contributor to GENHK. The cruise segment’s EBITDA loss may widen. Balance sheet quality is deteriorating on massive cruises investments. Target price: US$0.26.


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SATS Ltd: Strengthening its position in China

Pursuant to its Apr 17 announcement on the proposed joint investment with Charoen Pokphand Group (CP) in Jilin Zhong Xin Cheng Food (Jilin JVCo), SATS Limited (SATS) announced last week that Singbridge will also participate in the investment in Jilin JVCo (operates integrated pig farm in Jilin, China) through a JV agreement with SATS. CP will own a 65% direct stake in Jilin JVCo while SATS and Singbridge will participate through their JV’s (SGIPF) 35% stake in Jilin JVCo. SATS and Singbridge will hold 60% and 40% of SGIPF, respectively. In our view, having two strong strategic partners on board is certainly positive over the longer-term as the three partners will be able to tap on each other’s expertise to provide safe food. That said, given that this JV is still in the early stage, we maintain our HOLD rating with an unchanged FV of S$5.12. We will look to re-engage closer to S$4.70 or lower.


Singapore Property

Developer Sales on Track

Price inflection ahead; Stay POSITVE

URA reported that developers sold 1,024 private homes and 370 ECs in the month of May. This brings total private home sales to over 5,700 units YTD and is on track for our forecast of 10,000 units this year (+25% vs 7,972 in 2016). We believe robust sales should drive a further decline in unsold stock in the market and the ensuing improvement in inventoryto-sales ratio should allow developers to lift home prices. Maintain POSITIVE on property developers with catalysts from an impending rebound in home prices. UOL (BUY, TP SGD9.05) and CDL (BUY, TP SGD12.05) offer the best proxy to this inflection point. Risks to our positive view include a surprise tightening of policy measures and a sharp spike in interest rates. See our recent sector upgrade for further details.


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LionelLim8.16Check out our compilation of Target Prices

Share Prices

Counter NameLastChange
$ Alliance Mineral0.3850.035
Best World1.4150.025
China Sunsine0.910-
CWG Intl0.157-
Federal Int0.4300.010
Food Empire0.645-
Geo Energy Res0.280-
Golden Energy0.4400.010
$ GSS Energy0.1540.002
$ ISOTeam0.3450.005
Lian Beng0.705-
$ Miyoshi0.0720.001
$ Rex Intl0.051-
Sunningdale Tech2.1300.010
Serial System0.170-
Sino Grandness0.205-
Tiong Seng0.375-
$ Trendlines0.152-
Uni-Asia Grp1.4150.005
YZJ Shipbldg SGD1.5250.005
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